Two pictures on page one of the Sydney Morning Herald this morning show us a lot about the way Australia is governed. Read more »
PoliticalOwl
And Russian finance ministers speak the truth
PoliticalOwl - September 2, 2010 - 9:41pm
Welcome to fiscal space and good news for Australia
PoliticalOwl - September 2, 2010 - 9:10pm
Fiscal space. It's the latest addition to my vocabulary from the wonderful world of international economics courtesy of the International Monetary Fund. Sometimes, says an IMF report out this week, "fiscal space" is used to refer to the scope for financing a country's deficit tout court or for financing the deficit without either a sharp increase in funding costs or undue crowding out of private investment. For this IMF analysis the authors have used what they call "a simpler, starker definition—namely, fiscal space is the difference between the current level of public debt and the debt limit implied by the country’s historical record of fiscal adjustment."
By that measure Australia is doing quite nicely thank you whatever the would-be Treasurer Joe Hockey has been telling us in recent months. Australia clearly has one of the most manageable public debts in the world with the sobering evolution of public debt in advanced economies since the crisis, as well as IMF projections for debt ratios over the next five years shown in the following table: Read more »
New South Wales minister Paul McLeay resigns from Parliament
PoliticalOwl - September 1, 2010 - 10:25pm
The wowsers have won. Private lives are no longer private. Sneaky newspaper informants have taken over.
Consider this story:
New South Wales minister Paul McLeay resigns from Parliament | News.com.au: Read more »
For all those with campaign withdrawal symptoms.
PoliticalOwl - September 1, 2010 - 3:12pm
The US Republican Party is bringing out The Young Guns as its campaign for November’s Congr Read more »
Number of problem US banks keeps growing
PoliticalOwl - September 1, 2010 - 9:58am
The major Wall Street banks may be back in the business of paying big bonuses to staff but the United States banking system overall clearly still has its problems.
Overnight the FDIC reported that 829 banks with assets of $403 billion were now on its "problem" list. While the number was up from 775 banks at the end of the first quarter of this year, the total assets at risk was down slightly at $431 billion.
Back to the 1980s with housing
PoliticalOwl - August 31, 2010 - 11:40pm
The oft forgotten part of the Labor Government's economic stimulus program was the boost given to providing more government owned housing. Building approval figures out from the Bureau of Statistics show that in the year ended July public dwellings have provided the greatest share of the total since the mid 1980s..
In the 12 months to the end of July this year, of the total dwellings approvals of 170,824, public housing accounted for 15,597 or 9.1% of the total. The last time public housing reached this level was back in August 1984.
About as close to a dead heat as you can guess
PoliticalOwl - August 30, 2010 - 10:47pm
At the close of counting today the Australian Electoral Commission had this election about as close to a dead heat as you can get with the Coalition in front by a whisker on the two party preferred vote.
Party Votes % Swing
Common sense from an Independent
PoliticalOwl - August 30, 2010 - 10:08pm
The Independent member for Denison, Andrew Wilkie, was reported tonight as saying that his support for a government would only extend to supporting supply bills and to opposing "reckless" no-confidence motions. To me that seems like the very sensible position for someone elected as an independent to take.
Graft-Fighting Prosecutor Fired in Afghanistan
PoliticalOwl - August 29, 2010 - 8:13pm
Is this why we have our troops in Afghanistan?
Graft-Fighting Prosecutor Fired in Afghanistan - NYTimes.com:
"One of the country’s most senior prosecutors said Saturday that President Hamid Karzai fired him last week after he repeatedly refused to block corruption investigations at the highest levels of Mr. Karzai’s government. Read more »
The market pointing strongly to the Coalition
PoliticalOwl - August 29, 2010 - 10:19am
The "wisdom" of the market is that Australia will soon have a Coalition Government led by Tony Abbott. The Crikey Election Indicator, based on market prices, puts the Coalition at a 77% probability.
The market favours the Coalition
PoliticalOwl - August 27, 2010 - 10:21pm
Well I think we have reached the point where we now know who won what last Saturday. Not that we are any the wiser about who will become Prime Minister.
The figures tonight from the Australian Electoral Commission can be summarised thus:
In terms of seats won it is 72 all with the Coalition having the National Party member from Western Australia saying he will not support a Labor Government while refusing to join the Coalition and a Green saying he would support a "progressive" Labor Government. I guess we can call that 73 all.
That leaves the victor to be chosen by four independents - three of them former National Party members and a fourth who became an independent via membership of the Greens after a stint as a Liberal Party man. Read more »
The dangerous Irish spread
PoliticalOwl - August 27, 2010 - 5:30pm
Spare a thought for your Irish cousins. Read more »
The Australian election: When the hat doesn't fit | The Economist
PoliticalOwl - August 27, 2010 - 7:24am
The editorial in London's The Economist this morning reminds us of a simple truth that I for one have tended to overlook while caught up in the drama of who actually won Saturday's election. For Julia Gillard and the Labor Party this has been little short of a complete debacle
The Australian election: When the hat doesn't fit, head lines The Economist: "Australia’s dead-heat election was exciting. But the drama masks a desperately impoverished politics". Read more »
Bringing back the Crikey Indicator
PoliticalOwl - August 26, 2010 - 11:03pm
Stable government with Bob Katter?
PoliticalOwl - August 25, 2010 - 11:49pm
Making a monkey out of me
PoliticalOwl - August 25, 2010 - 11:48pm
No sooner had I praised Tony Abbott for having the good sense to refrain from publicly giving advice to the three country independents than the man goes and gives a press conference on the subject. I apologise. The man has not learned to be politically smart at all. He has just been incredibly lucky.
One for the climate change lawyers
PoliticalOwl - August 25, 2010 - 11:47pm
If stable government is desired the Greens must decide
PoliticalOwl - August 23, 2010 - 10:18pm
It's all well and good for Labor and Liberal-Nationals to be making their appeals to the independent members of the House of Representatives who will have the balance of power in the lower house but what the independents decide is irrelevant when it comes to the question of whether Australia will emerge with a stable government.
Like it or not we have a bicameral Parliament and from 1 July next year it is the Green Senators who will determine what things become law and what don't. Without the agreement of the Greens any pact with the Independents will be worthless when it comes to guaranteeing that a government, whether of the Coalition or the Labor variety, can actually govern. That harsh reality means there really is no choice for the Independents if stability is a principal aim as they seem to be saying. The idea of a Coalition-Green alliance is a sick joke and just not on.
The Rudd factor
PoliticalOwl - August 23, 2010 - 10:17pm
If the sacking of Kevin Rudd had an influence on Labor's poor Queensland vote the available evidence suggests it was because of the way the deed was done rather than any great popularity for the former Prime Minister himself. The statewide swing against Labor in the northern state on Saturday night's primary votes was 8.9% yet in Rudd's own seat of Griffith it was slightly higher at 9.1%.
Two deaths, a birth and a possible rebirth
PoliticalOwl - August 23, 2010 - 10:14pm
Saturday's Senate vote enables us to declare two political parties as effectively dead. The Democrats vote halved to just over 0.6 per cent of the national total with One Nation just making the half a percent level.
The only newcomer of note was the Australian S-x Party which ended Saturday night on 1.99%. That there is hope of life after death was shown by the Democratic Labor Party whose 2.2% in Victoria (1% nationwide) has given it an aside chance of actually winning a Senate seat.
Not much in the campaign
PoliticalOwl - August 21, 2010 - 12:58am
I'm not certain about the importance of election campaigns in determining who wins elections. To me the evidence is not clear that anything said or done in the 30 plus days after an Australian federal election is called actually influences the votes. But because I'm someone who used to play the game of the strategist I got into the habit of judging who won each and every day even though it might well have been meaningless.
For this campaign my judgment is that the campaigns were largely irrelevant. I cannot think, for example, of one political party advertisement that would have influenced one person to change their mind. And the operatives on both sides have been equally skilled in presenting their candidate in a favourable light for the television news bulletins.
On my score chart I have the Coalition winning on more days with Labor marginally ahead overall. Read more »
Could a man who drinks shandies become our Prime Minister?
PoliticalOwl - August 20, 2010 - 11:54pm
It was almost a gaff free campaign for Tony Abbott. None of the slips of the tongue for which he was renowned before becoming Liberal Leader. Always polite on the campaign trail. Nothing said or done out of place. Until virtually election eve when he called in at a Manly pub and ordered a shandy. For God's sake, a shandy! Beer and lemonade! What kind of man is that? If God had meant us to drink that he would have put the lemonade in the bottle.
Meanwhile Julia Gillard was out drinking Toohey's old. A dark and proper working person's beer.
The contrast was stark.
Was this election of 2010 won and lost in the pub?
One in four Americans wrongly believe Barack Obama is Muslim - Telegraph
PoliticalOwl - August 20, 2010 - 9:13am
They are Americans and they can vote!
One in four Americans wrongly believe Barack Obama is Muslim - Telegraph:
"An increasing number of Americans wrongly believe that President Barack Obama is a Muslim, with nearly one in four saying he is a follower of Islam, according to a new poll."
Not going ga ga and beating rubber chicken
PoliticalOwl - August 19, 2010 - 7:36am
Having pronounced an extended family connection with Lady Ga Ga, Julia Gillard might like to follow the example of US Senator Frank Lautenberg and include listening to Beautiful Dirty Rich as part of a future fund raising event. The 86 year old New Jersey Democrat has booked a luxury suite at a Lady Ga Ga concert on 7 September as the scene for his next campaign fund raiser. Read more »
Fix the Chaser boys - follow Brazil
PoliticalOwl - August 18, 2010 - 9:18pm
I suppose it would be one way to fix those Chaser boys.
Brazil's comedians and satirists have been banned from making fun of candidates ahead of the nation's presidential election in October. "Dubbed the 'anti-joking law', the relic of Brazil's 1964-1985 dictatorship prohibits ridiculing candidates in the three months before elections.
Critics say the ban threatens free speech and is a blight on the reputation of Latin America's largest nation.
Satire banned in Brazil ahead of presidential election - Telegraph:
Brazil's comedians and satirists have been banned from making fun of candidates ahead of the nation's presidential election in October. "Dubbed the 'anti-joking law', the relic of Brazil's 1964-1985 dictatorship prohibits ridiculing candidates in the three months before elections.
Critics say the ban threatens free speech and is a blight on the reputation of Latin America's largest nation.
Unnecessary alarm
PoliticalOwl - August 18, 2010 - 7:52pm
The headline on the ABC web site nearly gave me apoplexy this morning: Scots create whisky based fuel. Don't tell me, I feared that things have come to the pretty pass where they are burning the beautiful elixir rather than drinking it. And just when that wonderfulvideo feature on Crikey yesterday had sent me down to the local for fresh supplies. Oh the relief to read that it is just the by-products of the distilling process that are being used to make the butanol biofuel. And how great to know that with every tipple I will be helping reduce the world's reliance on fossil fuel!
A draw as the leaders debate to debate
PoliticalOwl - August 18, 2010 - 4:19pm
Avoiding election withdrawal symptoms
PoliticalOwl - August 17, 2010 - 8:29pm
Getting closer in Bennelong
PoliticalOwl - August 17, 2010 - 8:27pm
When Kevin Rudd was called down to give his protege Maxine McKew a hand in her seat of Bennelong it was a clear sign that Labor thought things were getting close. Now I notice that the bookmakers have got the contest close to even money take your pick. Will John Alexander provide John Howard with some belated revenge?
Not even at the Oz
PoliticalOwl - August 17, 2010 - 8:26pm
The big voting day gets closer and the interest seems to get even less.
'Boatman' Abbott hits the trail
PoliticalOwl - August 16, 2010 - 8:46pm
Election campaigns truly are wonderful things.
From the smh website's description of Tony Abbott on the trail as Julia Gillard delivered her delayed policy launch.'Boatman' Abbott hits the trail: "Five marginal seats in ten hours. It must be the last week of the election campaign.
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott needed all his action man mojo on Monday as he launched a blitz on marginal seats in western Sydney ahead of Saturday's vote.
Photo opportunities abounded - kids kicking soccer balls, others lined up for martial arts, a trip to a glassworks factory.
A $5 million pledge to boost local football grounds in Penrith, a $10 million splash for the war against bikies."
A nil all draw for Saturday's campaign
PoliticalOwl - August 15, 2010 - 11:03pm
It's hard for a politician to compete with the footy but the champion teams Collingwood and Geelong both having great victories probably means the feeling of contentment will continue in Victoria and ensure that the incumbent's advantage continues in Victoria. Nothing as helpful north of the border in New South Wales where those Westies will be lamenting Penrith falling in a rugby league hole. That's enough for me to declare Saturday a nil all draw in the campaign stakes.
The market this morning had a look at those marginal seat opinion polls and decided they favoured the Coalition. Read more »
Back to where we started
PoliticalOwl - August 14, 2010 - 12:53pm
Labor is back as the front runner. Some of the opinion polls are now showing it but, more importantly, it is the clear message from our own Election Indicator.
Last Sunday the Indicator had Labor down to being a 60% probability of winning after being as high as 79% at the start of the formal campaign proceedings.This morning Labor is rated as a 77% chance.
Nothing unique for Australia about boat people
PoliticalOwl - August 14, 2010 - 1:02am
And we think we have problems. In Canada they are not arriving in dribs and drabs on little boats via Indonesia but on proper ships direct from Sri Lanka.
Hung parliament speculation
PoliticalOwl - August 13, 2010 - 11:15pm
The hung parliament stories are starting to appear as some opinion polls -- but not the Read more »
No win for the men in suits
PoliticalOwl - August 13, 2010 - 11:14pm
A contrast in approaches yesterday.
Liberal Leader Tony Abbott was out and appealing again to the golden oldies -- this time a gathering of war veterans. Julia Gillard had younger people on her agenda with a national broadband opening in Tasmania followed by another occasion to put on a hard hat and talk about jobs and training.
Each leader was playing to their strengths really. In picture terms another winning day for Labor. A lot of men in suits just don't attract the attention of the casual television news viewer. What might have got the attention was Australia's most famous television journalist. Mark Latham steals the show wherever he bobs up and I have to admit I like his style in asking the kind of questions that journalists avoid.
It was yes or no at the Tele
PoliticalOwl - August 12, 2010 - 4:38pm
An intriguing variation on those website instant polls in the Sydney Daily Telegraph after last night's very interesting Rooty Hill RSL appearances by the Prime Minister and the Opposition leader.
Eventually someone twigged that asking people to vote for a Yes or a No was not going to be very revealing and the names of the leaders was substituted.
Eventually someone twigged that asking people to vote for a Yes or a No was not going to be very revealing and the names of the leaders was substituted.Youths pay the price
PoliticalOwl - August 12, 2010 - 4:32pm
Youth unemployment -- those aged 15-19 and wanting to be in the workforce -- has reached its highest level in nearly a decade. Australian Bureau of Statistics figures for July released this morning put the seasonally adjusted rate at 18%. It was last above this level back in 2001. The July figure is up from a low point of 11.5% in August 2008. Read more »
Election far from top of the public mind
PoliticalOwl - August 12, 2010 - 1:54am
As a long time print journalist I found it quite depressing the first time I sat behind the one way glass and watched a skilled researcher tease out of people their opinions (or quite often their lack of them) about politics and where they gained their information from. Rare it was to find a swinging voter who was influenced by anything they read in a newspaper. A quick glance at a headline anything to do with politics and the page was turned pronto. And as for party political advertisements they were an absolute no-no paid no attention at all.
I am not really surprised then to find that stories about who has promised what to whom in a day of election campaigning rarely feature in the list of most read items on newspaper websites. The great majority of Australians have other things on their mind that are of far more interest to them. Stories like these that were top of the lists at midnight last night:
Fairfax Sites Read more »
The Australian way of death
PoliticalOwl - August 11, 2010 - 11:34pm
Heart attacks -- or as the Bureau of Statistics classifies them in figures out this week, "diseases of the circulatory system -- are down. Neoplasms -- cancers and things -- are growing as a proportion of the cause of death as are mental and behavioural disorders. Read more »
Do as I say, not as I do
PoliticalOwl - August 11, 2010 - 11:33pm
Politicians the world over have a wonderful capacity not to get too worried about a little bit of hypocrisy and of no one is that truer than the Republican Newt Gingrich, who is leading the fundraising pack in the quest for his party's next presidential nomination. Among his many policy claims, Gingrich is a family values man who repeatedly warns that President Obama’s "secular, socialist machine" is threatening to destroy America by undermining the Judeo-Christian "values" upon which the country was built. Read more »
The funsters win it for Labor
PoliticalOwl - August 11, 2010 - 11:33pm
I'll raise you a Princes Highway duplication
PoliticalOwl - August 11, 2010 - 11:31pm
The Liberals went for the footballing vote yesterday with a re-announcement by the candidate for the marginal seat of Corangamite of money to expand the Skilled Stadium home ground of the Geelong Cats. Read more »
Policy on the never never
PoliticalOwl - August 11, 2010 - 11:30pm
I wonder how long it will be before a politician starts making a promise to do something 10 years from now.? Not long probably, as the current lot of promises -- such as Labor's new railway for Sydney's Western suburbs -- have starting dates well into the parliament after next. It really is becoming a nonsense.
A happy enough bunch
PoliticalOwl - August 11, 2010 - 11:30pm
Australians are a happy enough bunch at the moment, according to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index. The figure for August released this morning of 119.1 was up from July's 113.1
Westpac's chief economist, Bill Evans, called it a very strong result. After tumbling by 15% in the wake of three consecutive interest rate hikes in March, April and May, the index has now recovered by 17% in the past two months.
A rave review for Professor Quiggin
PoliticalOwl - August 10, 2010 - 4:26pm
You just have to visit the blog site of economist John Quiggin to know he's a man with a self-deprecating sense of humour. Read more »
A debating win for who?
PoliticalOwl - August 10, 2010 - 4:26pm
As for yesterday's National Press Club debate on the economy all that needs to be said is that it was completely irrelevant. Not a vote will have changed because of it.
A sop to the Greens
PoliticalOwl - August 10, 2010 - 4:25pm
Labor has made little effort to date to maximise its share of Green preferences. Read more »
One good reason for a policy free election zone
PoliticalOwl - August 10, 2010 - 4:24pm
It's worth remembering as we bemoan how this election campaign is a relatively policy free zone that neither Labor nor the Coalition can really promise to do very much at all. When neither side will end up in control of the Senate the best a promise can be is a promise to try and do something.
Everything needs to be looked at through a Greens prism.
Who won the news cycle? Gillard, the unflappable trouper
PoliticalOwl - August 10, 2010 - 4:22pm
Whatever you might think of Julia Gillard you surely would have to admit that she is quite an unflappable campaign trouper.
She seems to float from one day to the next outwardly unperturbed by the campaign disasters surrounding her. If she is prone to the temperamental tantrums of her immediate predecessor as Prime Minister she sure is a mistress of disguise. There's an occasional display of tough talking but never a sign of anger and for the casual follower of politics -- and that is the vast majority of Australian voters, especially at this stage of the campaign -- she gives off an aura of being in control. In image terms, yesterday was probably her most successful so far. When appearing on an education stage Ms Gillard she is relaxed and confident and it's hard for a politician to find a better backdrop for the television news than groups of children.
Maybe some real debate
PoliticalOwl - August 9, 2010 - 9:35pm
Ehey will be appearing one after the other and not alongside each other, but perhaps that means that the forum being planned by The Daily Telegraph on Wednesday in Sydney will actually result in some real debate. Goodness knows we could do with it. Anyway, my congratulations to the Tele for trying.
A new type of shotgun wedding
PoliticalOwl - August 9, 2010 - 7:51pm
From the London Daily Telegraph comes this report:
Groom accidentally kills three relatives at wedding
A groom accidentally killed three relatives at his wedding in Turkey when he fired into the air with an assault rifle in celebration, according to reports
Online job ads fall in July
PoliticalOwl - August 9, 2010 - 9:20am
I wonder if figures like these will cause the Coalition to reconsider its policy of ending economic stimulus spending ASAP? Without the public housing and school building components of the Labor package there would certainly be a rise in building worker unemployment. Read more »
Did David Cameron need to dock his tails? - Telegraph
PoliticalOwl - August 8, 2010 - 9:50am
It's good to see that class is alive and well as a political issue in modern Britain but this piece does tell us something about political campaigning too. Public image is everything and to hell with a sister's wedding.
Did David Cameron need to dock his tails? - Telegraph: "The Prime Minister's decision not to wear a morning suit at his sister's wedding stemmed from an unfortunate incident involving plus-fours and a photographer, says Nigel Farndale" Read more »
Tired of the Center-Right: New Poll Finds Merkel Government at Rock Bottom - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
PoliticalOwl - August 7, 2010 - 2:53pm
Tired of the Center-Right: New Poll Finds Merkel Government at Rock Bottom - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International: "Germany's economy may be on the mend, but Chancellor Angela Merkel's government is less popular than ever. Fully 83 percent of Germans aren't happy with her coalition -- and the future of the opposition Social Democrats may be looking bright."
Different standards
PoliticalOwl - August 6, 2010 - 7:21pm
In Townsville, Queensland, Australia, yesterday free speech had a victory as theTownsville Bulletin recorded all over page one.
In Madison, Wisconsin, USA, free speech had a setback when a court barred a candidate for a state Assembly sea
In Madison, Wisconsin, USA, free speech had a setback when a court barred a candidate for a state Assembly seaAnger on the rebound
PoliticalOwl - August 6, 2010 - 7:17pm
The anti-Australian feeling in India keeps growing. We've had criticism from the Indian government of the way its country's students are treated in Victoria and John Howard was blackballed as a future head of the International Cricket Council by India's cricket authority. Now it is Australian companies providing services and facilities for the Delhi Commonwealth Games that are under the gun.
Overnight, the Treasurer of the Games organising committee resigned after publicity was given to his son working for the Australians laying Rebound Ace tennis courts.
Out of my comfort zone
PoliticalOwl - August 6, 2010 - 7:08pm
I confess to being confused about this election. I have been writing about them, and participating in them, federal and state, for nearly 50 years but have not come across anything like this one. My experience tells me that first-term governments don't lose when economic conditions are basically good. Yet, a first-term government in good economic times that sacks its leaders on the eve of the campaign and then welcomes the vanquished back to campaign on his record? What are the public going to make of that? Frankly, I just don't know. If there is ever going to be an election that a government loses because of its own stupidity, this is it.
Interpreting the polls and the under dog factor
PoliticalOwl - August 5, 2010 - 7:51pm
Russians learning about warmth
PoliticalOwl - August 4, 2010 - 6:56pm
The China syndrome: A cautionary headline.
PoliticalOwl - August 4, 2010 - 6:53pm
The perils of listening tours: always find a friendly face first
PoliticalOwl - August 4, 2010 - 6:47pm
Who won the news cycle? ‘Real Julia’ switch straight from the campaign handbook
PoliticalOwl - August 3, 2010 - 10:59pm
Talking about Julia
PoliticalOwl - August 2, 2010 - 9:12pm
There is one benefit from promising to be a changed woman on the campaign trail - today the journalists concentrated on Julia Gillard rather than Kevin Rudd.
That change was needed is shown by these figures from the review of the political week by Media Monitors.
Collingwood coming to Labor's rescue
PoliticalOwl - August 1, 2010 - 12:09pm
It was Labor's first bit of good news for the week - Collingwood trounced Carlton and went to the top of the AFL ladder. If only the Magpies can keep on winning until election day there might yet be a swing to the Government in Victoria come election day. And if that's all a bit confusing to you then have a look at my piece earlier this month on the very latest research on voting behaviour showing that a win by a high attendance or championship football team on the eve of a political election results in the incumbent party gaining an additional 2.42 percentage points and 2.30 percentage points respectively. Read more »
Can't get rid of Kevin - Coalition wins again
PoliticalOwl - July 31, 2010 - 7:39pm
As a rough rule the ABC and the commercial television networks tend to give each side equal time on their news bulletins which is why the parties work so hard at devising photogenic events that will tell a story they want told. Which is all very good in theory but it only works if there is virtually no alternative to showing the day's party line. Unfortunately for Julia Gillard the Labor leader Kevin Rudd has been a major distraction on many days this week that the journalists find far more interesting than anything she has to say. Yesterday at the start it was not anything that Kevin was quoted as saying but a story in the Sydney Morning Herald saying he had to been asked to take a more important role in a wavering campaign. Not as vicious a background briefing as the one earlier in the week but Ms Gillard felt obliged to comment that she knew nothing of it. Then, after being rushed off to hospital for a gall bladder operation, Mr Rudd. through his spokesman, struck again with some words that made Ms Gillard look a bit stupid. Read more »
A cartoon to put television political reporting in context
PoliticalOwl - July 31, 2010 - 12:51pm
Change the names and perhaps he's describing Australia
PoliticalOwl - July 31, 2010 - 10:14am
From NY Times columnist Paul Krugman this week:
Why does the Obama administration keep looking for love in all the wrong places? Why does it go out of its way to alienate its friends, while wooing people who will never waver in their hatred? ...
The point is that Mr. Obama’s attempts to avoid confrontation have been counterproductive. His opponents remain filled with a passionate intensity, while his supporters, having received no respect, lack all conviction. ...
Just to be clear, progressives would be foolish to sit out this election: Mr. Obama may not be the politician of their dreams, but his enemies are definitely the stuff of their nightmares. But Mr. Obama has a responsibility, too. He can’t expect strong support from people his administration keeps ignoring and insulting.
An honourable man
PoliticalOwl - July 30, 2010 - 9:24pm
You can choose your own Brutus, Marc Anthony and Caesar in the current Australian political play called Kevin Rudd is an honourable man. I suppose it is one of those occasions where, if the cap fits, wear it.
I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him.
The evil that men do lives after them;
The good is oft interred with their bones;
So let it be with Caesar. The noble Brutus
Hath told you Caesar was ambitious:
If it were so, it was a grievous fault,
And grievously hath Caesar answer'd it.
Here, under leave of Brutus and the rest--
For Brutus is an honourable man;
So are they all, all honourable men--
Come I to speak in Caesar's funeral.
He was my friend, faithful and just to me:
But Brutus says he was ambitious;
And Brutus is an honourable man.
The evil that men do lives after them;
The good is oft interred with their bones;
So let it be with Caesar. The noble Brutus
Hath told you Caesar was ambitious:
If it were so, it was a grievous fault,
And grievously hath Caesar answer'd it.
Here, under leave of Brutus and the rest--
For Brutus is an honourable man;
So are they all, all honourable men--
Come I to speak in Caesar's funeral.
He was my friend, faithful and just to me:
But Brutus says he was ambitious;
And Brutus is an honourable man.
Getting depressed watching television
PoliticalOwl - July 30, 2010 - 12:57am
Early today the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2009 State of the Climate report drawing on data for 10 key climate indicators that all point to the same finding: the scientific evidence that our world is warming is unmistakable. Read more »
Still where I started.
PoliticalOwl - July 29, 2010 - 11:17pm
At the very beginning of this election campaign I speculated that if there were no opinion polls to guide us in a different direction, pundits such as me would be basing their assumptions about who would win the election on economic conditions and on that score would have Labor most likely.
Who won the news cycle? Coalition the clear winner
PoliticalOwl - July 28, 2010 - 5:42pm
It was a campaign day when nothing seemed to go right for Labor and the Coalition coasted by with barely a problem at all. Watching and listening to the television and radio news bulletins and current affairs shows was to witness a lead disappearing. The saboteurs within the Labor camp keep coming up with ammunition and Laurie Oakes is, sensibly, very happy to fire it. And when you avoid all serious content who can blame the rest of the media following along with enthusiasm.By my count it was the easiest win any side has had in the campaign so far and takes the Coalition to the overall lead for the first time. A few more days like this one and we really will have a contest. Read more »
Changing opinions of a CIS guest
PoliticalOwl - July 27, 2010 - 10:04pm
Niall Ferguson, MA, D.Phil., is the Laurence A.
Appealing to the red-necks to give Labor another campaigning win
PoliticalOwl - July 25, 2010 - 7:02pm
If it really is working class red-necks in the outer suburbs who are angry with Labor then giving them a bonus trade in on old bombs is probably sensible vote-winning politics. I'm not sure about the environmental advantage of the $2000 for clunkers policy, mind you, but then neither side is the slightest bit interested at the moment in policies that might actually be to the long term good of the country. Everything said and done at the is a a crude appeal for the votes of the unthinking. Saturday's Liberal Party recycling of money for security cameras to "cut down" on suburban crime is another wonderful example of that..
Saturday was another clear campaigning win for the Government. Far too much in the first week of Tony Abbott talking to men in suits and talking about wife and daughters is not going in itself to make him more appealing to women voters.
A clear Labor win on the day and a six point lead for the week. Read more »
I will be next PM: Abbott
PoliticalOwl - July 23, 2010 - 9:31pm
It is a daring politician who defies the conventional campaign wisdom that appearing over confident is a sure fire way to lose votes. Yet that is what Tony Abbott has done today while campaigning in Western Australia. With no ifs, buts or maybes he has declared himself the winner as this ABC News report tells:
Non working old people next
PoliticalOwl - July 15, 2010 - 11:35am
Compulsory euthanasia for retired people must surely be the next proposal from environmental groups to save the planet from greenhouse gas emissions. Culling the aged would follow on nicely from the suggestion by the Nature Conservancy and the Pew Environment Group that feral animals be destroyed. Read more »
I don't care about Fiji at all really
PoliticalOwl - July 14, 2010 - 10:32pm
We all just love being a big bully don't we. Telling those Fijians how they should behave. Respect democracy. Adhere to one man one vote. We'll punish you when you don't.
It's just so good being the big boy in the school yard throwing your weight around on those little fellows. It makes up for having to be the supine coward when we deal with those bigger than us. So while we preach our great principles to the South Pacific we kowtow to the totalitarian Chinese.
Such is diplomatic life.
Does my dog look good in this – or just barking?
PoliticalOwl - September 3, 2010 - 8:10am
Fashion writing is finally coming of age. Yesterday afternoon's London Evening Standard: Read more »
A serious quote or two of the day
PoliticalOwl - September 2, 2010 - 9:40pm
A slight Labor election comeback
PoliticalOwl - September 1, 2010 - 10:51pm
The fluctuations continue with the market still leaning towards the Coalition becoming the Australian Government but being not as certain about it as early in the week.
I'm afraid I have no insight to offer.
Why supposedly good Christian politicians lie
PoliticalOwl - September 1, 2010 - 9:40pm
Tony Abbott, the conservative politician on the verge of becoming Australia's next Prime Minister has confessed that people should not believe something just because he said it. The only truths of his that are to be believed are those promises that he has actually written down.
And today we learn that the Australian Tony is not the only Tony who feels no guilt about telling porky pies. The long serving British Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair, like Mr Abbott a man who calls himself a devout and practising Roman Catholic, has a similar attitude towards the truth. Read more »
No Clothes - Pessimism about the USA
PoliticalOwl - September 1, 2010 - 10:36am
With so many countries - Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan - thinking they can rely on increasing exports to stimulate their growth while cutting back their spending at home to reduce government debt, what is happening in the world's biggest market takes on extra significance. And in the United States the signals are not good as its economy staggers along with unemployment still approaching 10 per cent and growth insufficient to stop it rising further.
These extracts from the article No Clothes - on Tim Duy's Fed Watch website give the flavour of the problems ahead. Read more »
Doing climate change science better
PoliticalOwl - September 1, 2010 - 12:01am
Forgetting that peace should be the aim of war
PoliticalOwl - August 31, 2010 - 8:52pm
I find myself in agreement with New York Times Op-Ed Columnist Hob Herbert who reminds us that "the goal when fighting any war should be peace, not a permanent simmer of nonstop maiming and killing. Wars are meant to be won," writes Herbert, "— if they have to be fought at all — not endlessly looked after." Yet allowing for a permanent simmering appears to be what the US and its allies like Australia are settling for in Afghanistan. Even the politicians are not trying to kid us that this is a war that the west can actually win. Containment of terrorists - terrorists who have largely moved elsewhere anyhow (see my recent post Australian Troops for Somalia?) - is what the lives of an increasing number of soldiers are being sacrificed for. Read more »
Putting Indonesians in prison more quickly
PoliticalOwl - August 30, 2010 - 10:21pm
Perhaps the demonstrations in Darwin by the Indonesian crew members who brought boat people to Australia are at last getting the message that being part of the people smuggling business is not a simple way of supplementing a low income. The very fact that they do not like the conditions they are being held under is the best possible way of cutting off the illegal trade. By all means speed up the process of charging them with an illegal activity and transfer them to a Darwin jail from as detention centre after a court appearance but continue to send the message that the price of aiding and abetting people smuggling is being locked up for a long period.
SEE ALSO - Canada attracting Tamils
Canada attracting Tamils
PoliticalOwl - August 30, 2010 - 9:09pm
There is nothing particularly unique about Australia attracting Sri Lankans to arrive by boat uninvited. Canada has become a prized location too and for ship loans rather than small boat loads. Earlier this month 492 Tamil asylum seekers arrived in British Columbia aboard the MV Sun Sea and today the Toronto Globe and Mail reports on the arrival in Thailand of another major group awaiting a suitable ship to take them across the Pacific.
Australian troops for Somalia?
PoliticalOwl - August 29, 2010 - 8:08pm
If fighting international terrorism really is the vital matter that both Australia's potential governments maintain then over in the Defence Department they should be drawing up the plans to send our troops to Somalia. Afghanistan, it is now clear, is no longer the centre of the evil Al Qaeda's activities but that does not mean the terrorist threat has disappeared. It has simply moved elsewhere. Read more »
The Prime Minister for Funerals
PoliticalOwl - August 27, 2010 - 11:32pm
I'm not sure who is actually going to be in charge of the Australian Government in the months ahead. Quite clearly it will not be whoever is the nominal Prime Minister. He or she will be too busy attending the funerals of Australian soldiers killed in Afghanistan.
How we got in to this ridiculous situation where the head of our government attends every military funeral I don't know. I guess it was the John Howard version of spin, an attempt to show he understood the sacrifice that was being made by our army participating in an Iraq war being fought on the basis of the lie that Saddam Hussein's regime was in possession of weapons of mass destruction.
Neither Coalition nor Labor politicians since then have had the courage to confess that they supported sending our soldiers to Iraq to be sacrificed for no reason at all really. None of them have wanted to answer the question posed in today's edition of USA Today: was it worth it? Read more »
Election result? What a second string yarn
PoliticalOwl - August 27, 2010 - 8:43pm
So we had an election. And no one has won. Well it's the second rate story anyway. Read more »
Now a real reason not to like them
PoliticalOwl - August 27, 2010 - 5:29pm
I have discussed the matter with Paunch and Miss Polly and we agree that this fatwa business is getting out of hand.
What do they mean "unclean"?
What do they mean "unclean"?
A macho man in politics provides real photo opportunities
PoliticalOwl - August 27, 2010 - 7:14am
If there was an award for the political art of providing media photo opportunities it would surely be no contest. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin would win hands down. The man who is expected to reclaim his former job as the country's President at the next election has mastered the art of using television to cultivate the image, as the Moscow Times put it this week "a rugged leader beloved by the Russian people." Read more »
Outsourced Call Centers Return, To U.S. Homes : NPR
PoliticalOwl - August 26, 2010 - 10:01pm
I wonder how long it will be before the trend comes to Australia?
Outsourced Call Centers Return, To U.S. Homes : NPR:
"For years, Americans have had their phone calls about credit card bills and broken cell phones handled by people in the Philippines or India. But American firms are starting to bring call centers back to the U.S. — and this time around, they are hiring more people to work in their own homes.Ten years ago, it made a lot of sense to outsource these jobs overseas. But that's changing. Increasingly, companies that want to outsource their customer service jobs are happy with these domestic arrangements. Read more »
The blazing heights of current affairs TV
PoliticalOwl - August 25, 2010 - 11:47pm
A danger signal or two
PoliticalOwl - August 25, 2010 - 11:46pm
When fears about the future of the Greek economy were at their highest back in May the gap between the interest rate Germany paid on a 10 year bond and what the Greek Government had to fork out peaked at 9.63 percentage points (or basis points as the experts put it.)
Read more »
Don't worry about mandates
PoliticalOwl - August 23, 2010 - 10:17pm
At least we won't have to listen to government politicians -- a government of whatever colours -- talking about having a mandate for their actions. Neither the Coalition nor Labor can claim to have one when they both got well under 50% of the primary vote and just about shared the two party preferred measure.
Wise words of Windsor
PoliticalOwl - August 23, 2010 - 10:15pm
I thought the continuing member for New England Tony Windsor put things nicely in one of his television interview when he could not distinguish between the two alternatives for government, describing them both as nothing more than two sets of career managers after the same jobs.
Still a warming world
PoliticalOwl - August 23, 2010 - 10:13pm
So back to really serious matters. The world is still having a very warm year. Read more »
Spruiking their wares from the middle of the beach
PoliticalOwl - August 21, 2010 - 12:39am
I'm pleased I don't work for Tony Abbott. In the election campaigns that I helped run we used to call the game over at midday on Friday and adjourn to a decent restaurant where the party leader would shout us lunch. Nothing more we can do, we would say, as we tucked into another bottle.
Not so with this lot of leaders. Tony is so wound up he threatens to keep campaigning right through until 6pm on Saturday! And Julia Gillard waited until Friday night to have dinner with her staff at the Penrith Leagues Club. The Penrith Leagues Club?
Things just ain't what they used to be.
And election campaigns aren't either.
The discussion of ideas, policies for the future, have finally disappeared from the agenda. This election has been the classic demonstration of the truth of that principle that two ice cream sellers on the same beach gravitate towards standing alongside each other in the middle so they can share the market. Read more »
A thought about tomorrow
PoliticalOwl - August 20, 2010 - 10:45am
Former federal and state independent MP Ted Mack writing in today's Sydney Morning Herald:
Electoral system provides only an illusion of democracy:
"Party leaders and prime ministers come and go without reference to the voters. There is no mechanism to ensure promises are kept.
Don't be fooled by so-called internal polling
PoliticalOwl - August 19, 2010 - 10:12pm
The Labor Party is concerned that too many people think it will win Saturday's election and that complacency will convince some of its disappointed normal supporters to make a protest vote in the belief that it is safe to teach it a lesson without there being any danger of the other lot actually being elected. Hence the leaking to television journalists tonight that while in front 52 to 48 on the nationwide vote Labor's internal polling showed a considerable variation between States and between electorates that was putting the Government in danger.
Unless there has been an outbreak of honesty since I had a role in that grubby task of election campaigning there is very little likelihood that such "internal polling" actually exists except in the imagination of the leaker. In my day I certainly conducted most of this kind of survey all on my own and always found exactly the result reported so breathlessly tonight. To me the amazing thing is the eagerness of journalists to believe any nonsense that they can turn into a rattling good yarn. Read more »
Who won the news cycle? Labor to cheer for the Broncos and the Cats
PoliticalOwl - August 19, 2010 - 8:06pm
Preparing for Monday
PoliticalOwl - August 19, 2010 - 6:50am
The votes are counted. The party's over. You supported a loser. You are now embarrassed to have that bumper sticker on your car. You need help.
Understanding the keen, green nature of my audience I therefore bring you this advice from the Planet Green website:
Rupert Murdoch donates $1m to Republican party
PoliticalOwl - August 18, 2010 - 9:11pm
If you believe the comment from the News Corporation spokesman quoted in this story you will believe anything!
Rupert Murdoch donates $1m to Republican party - Telegraph: Read more »
"Rupert Murdoch has donated $1 million to the Republican party, more than doubling its fundraising in the second quarter of the year and giving a boost to candidates in the November mid-term elections."
Sharing super brain's analysis
PoliticalOwl - August 18, 2010 - 4:21pm
My old colleague "Superbrain - the man with a computer for a mind", as they called him on the London Sun back in the 1970s when I travelled with him to London to introduce ratings to that paper's racing pages, has dabbled over the years with betting on elections and had considerable success at it too as he does on all things where he chooses to have a wager. Read more »
Running the circus from the monkey cage
PoliticalOwl - August 18, 2010 - 10:39am
All this whiz-bang business of robo telephone calls soliciting voting intentions from 28,000 people as reported by the Fairfax press this morning has left me reeling. I have not the faintest, foggiest clue as to whether the pollster involved is using a methodology that has a chance of producing an accurate result. I am confident that the Fairfax journalists who have breathlessly reported the findings have no idea either.
Call me old-fashioned but I'm continuing with my commitment to try and put all opinion polls out of my mind as I make my guess about what is happening in the electorates of Australia. The only external guide I take the slightest notice of is the information from the Crikey Election Indicator that measures the opinions of all the participants in a market on the outcome. My leaning towards the market rather than the polls is because experience has shown it to be a slightly better guide as this analysis of the Iowa Electronic Markets run by the business school of the University of Iowa illustrates: Read more »
Getting closer to a trade war?
PoliticalOwl - August 17, 2010 - 8:28pm
A bit of biffo but no real passion
PoliticalOwl - August 17, 2010 - 8:26pm
I know there’s been a bit of biffo in a couple of electorates and some eggs thrown yesterday at a candidate’s car that provoked some minor child abuse but if this campaign is notable for anything it is a lack of real passion. In a perverse kind of way it is this apparent lack of interest that makes the campaign of 2010 such a fascinating one to diehard election watchers like me. I can’t remember any election like it when so few people really care about the outcome that it is difficult to predict the outcome.
No we won't - a campaign win for a dull and boring speech
PoliticalOwl - August 17, 2010 - 6:52pm
Taliban kill couple in public stoning - Telegraph
PoliticalOwl - August 16, 2010 - 9:09pm
Is this what we are fighting for?
Taliban kill couple in public stoning - Telegraph: "A man and woman have been stoned to death in northern Afghanistan after being accused by the Taliban of having an affair."
Federal election 2010
PoliticalOwl - August 16, 2010 - 7:59pm
14 August 2010 A listing of probabilities of victory by party for all House of Representative seats. Small Labor losses the best guess
Brighter Green House of Representatives prospects
PoliticalOwl - August 15, 2010 - 10:45pm
As the pollsters keep telling us that the Greens are on course to do substantially better at this election than in the past the pundits keep warning us that the eventual Green vote will be less than what is being predicted. Why that is the accepted wisdom of the media experts I'm not sure. Looking at what has happened at recent elections seems to suggest, if anything, that the actual Green vote will be higher than the predicted one rather than the reverse.
The opinion poll figure in the above table is the prediction in the second last Newspoll published before election day. In all four cases the actual Green vote was higher than the prediction. Read more »
Small Labor losses the best guess
PoliticalOwl - August 14, 2010 - 1:38am
Goodness knows what to say about the opinion polls. In the last two days we have had Morgan putting Labor's two party preferred vote share at 57.5% and apparently AC Nielsen in the morning has them on 53%. I just don't believe that public opinion moves in as dramatic a fashion as these and the other pollsters are telling us.
I'll stick with the market as providing the best guide and at midnight it suggested Labor was at about 52.3% nationally. Making a few adjustments to suggest that Labor is doing worse than that in Queensland and NSW and better in Victoria and South Australia the best guess by electorate follows: Read more »
The temperature is still rising
PoliticalOwl - August 13, 2010 - 11:20pm
The Goddard Institute of Space Studies at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration has now released its analysis of world temperatures for the first seven months of this year showing that the global average July 2010 temperature was 0.55°C warmer than climatology (the long-run average) in the GISS analysis, which puts 2010 in practically a three-way tie for third warmest July. July 1998 was the warmest in the GISS analysis, at 0.68°C.
The July 2010 global map of surface temperature anomalies (figure 1), relative to the average July in the 1951-1980 period, was more than 5°C (about 10°F) warmer than climatology in the eastern European region including Moscow.
Not a matter of if, but when
PoliticalOwl - August 13, 2010 - 11:15pm
Our whole system of government has come to a pretty pass if the Coalition really does believe that it cannot trust the officials of the Commonwealth Treasury to act with fairness and integrity in carrying out their duties to cost election promises. What has upset the shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey and Finance Minister Andrew Robb is a newspaper story alleging that a Treasury analysis of one promised project found a sizeable mistake in the Coalition's costings. Send in the Federal Police to find the villain responsible for the leak is what the Opposition pair have shouted and until that happens no more proposals will be submitted for costing.
Now there's no doubt that the leaker involved has acted in a quite disreputable fashion.
Who won the news cycle? Tea trolley talk gives the day to Tony
PoliticalOwl - August 12, 2010 - 4:42pm
Now I know that the actual television audience for last night's quite fascinating public meeting with the two party leaders at Rooty Hill RSL will have had very small ratings but the influence of such an event is not only on those who actually see it.
The chat around the tea trolley (or water cooler for you Gen Yers) where those who did have a look give their impressions to their colleagues has an impact as well. So too does the verdict of those on the morning television and radio shows. On this score Wednesday was a good day for Tony Abbott. The conventional part of the day's campaigning was nothing out of the ordinary by him or by Julia Gillard but talking to a group of seemingly quite ordinary Sydney-siders saw the Opposition Leader thrive. He clearly has done this kind of performance before -- as he explained when he descended from the state to be on the same level as his audience.
Reserve Bank member crossing a delicate line
PoliticalOwl - August 12, 2010 - 4:35pm
An independent Reserve Bank is something of an anomaly in a democracy where an unelected group or people get to make major decisions that have an effect on all of us. For one thing, when the board makes a mistake and the economy suffers, it is not its members who get punished but the government, which has granted it an independent role in monetary policy. It is a delicate balancing act for government and bank and that the system generally works without public tension reflects well on the political sensitivity of those involved.
Part of that sensitivity has to be each party carefully choosing the words it uses about the other.
Election far from top of the public mind
PoliticalOwl - August 12, 2010 - 1:54am
As a long time print journalist I found it quite depressing the first time I sat behind the one way glass and watched a skilled researcher tease out of people their opinions (or quite often their lack of them) about politics and where they gained their information from. Rare it was to find a swinging voter who was influenced by anything they read in a newspaper. A quick glance at a headline anything to do with politics and the page was turned pronto. And as for party political advertisements they were an absolute no-no paid no attention at all.
I am not really surprised then to find that stories about who has promised what to whom in a day of election campaigning rarely feature in the list of most read items on newspaper websites. The great majority of Australians have other things on their mind that are of far more interest to them. Stories like these that were top of the lists at midnight last night:
Fairfax Sites Read more »
The Australian way of death
PoliticalOwl - August 11, 2010 - 11:34pm
Heart attacks -- or as the Bureau of Statistics classifies them in figures out this week, "diseases of the circulatory system -- are down. Neoplasms -- cancers and things -- are growing as a proportion of the cause of death as are mental and behavioural disorders. Read more »
Do as I say, not as I do
PoliticalOwl - August 11, 2010 - 11:33pm
Politicians the world over have a wonderful capacity not to get too worried about a little bit of hypocrisy and of no one is that truer than the Republican Newt Gingrich, who is leading the fundraising pack in the quest for his party's next presidential nomination. Among his many policy claims, Gingrich is a family values man who repeatedly warns that President Obama’s "secular, socialist machine" is threatening to destroy America by undermining the Judeo-Christian "values" upon which the country was built. Read more »
The funsters win it for Labor
PoliticalOwl - August 11, 2010 - 11:33pm
I'll raise you a Princes Highway duplication
PoliticalOwl - August 11, 2010 - 11:31pm
The Liberals went for the footballing vote yesterday with a re-announcement by the candidate for the marginal seat of Corangamite of money to expand the Skilled Stadium home ground of the Geelong Cats. Read more »
Policy on the never never
PoliticalOwl - August 11, 2010 - 11:30pm
I wonder how long it will be before a politician starts making a promise to do something 10 years from now.? Not long probably, as the current lot of promises -- such as Labor's new railway for Sydney's Western suburbs -- have starting dates well into the parliament after next. It really is becoming a nonsense.
A happy enough bunch
PoliticalOwl - August 11, 2010 - 11:30pm
Australians are a happy enough bunch at the moment, according to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index. The figure for August released this morning of 119.1 was up from July's 113.1
Westpac's chief economist, Bill Evans, called it a very strong result. After tumbling by 15% in the wake of three consecutive interest rate hikes in March, April and May, the index has now recovered by 17% in the past two months.
A rave review for Professor Quiggin
PoliticalOwl - August 10, 2010 - 4:26pm
You just have to visit the blog site of economist John Quiggin to know he's a man with a self-deprecating sense of humour. Read more »
A debating win for who?
PoliticalOwl - August 10, 2010 - 4:26pm
As for yesterday's National Press Club debate on the economy all that needs to be said is that it was completely irrelevant. Not a vote will have changed because of it.
A sop to the Greens
PoliticalOwl - August 10, 2010 - 4:25pm
Labor has made little effort to date to maximise its share of Green preferences. Read more »
One good reason for a policy free election zone
PoliticalOwl - August 10, 2010 - 4:24pm
It's worth remembering as we bemoan how this election campaign is a relatively policy free zone that neither Labor nor the Coalition can really promise to do very much at all. When neither side will end up in control of the Senate the best a promise can be is a promise to try and do something.
Everything needs to be looked at through a Greens prism.
Who won the news cycle? Gillard, the unflappable trouper
PoliticalOwl - August 10, 2010 - 4:22pm
Whatever you might think of Julia Gillard you surely would have to admit that she is quite an unflappable campaign trouper.
She seems to float from one day to the next outwardly unperturbed by the campaign disasters surrounding her. If she is prone to the temperamental tantrums of her immediate predecessor as Prime Minister she sure is a mistress of disguise. There's an occasional display of tough talking but never a sign of anger and for the casual follower of politics -- and that is the vast majority of Australian voters, especially at this stage of the campaign -- she gives off an aura of being in control. In image terms, yesterday was probably her most successful so far. When appearing on an education stage Ms Gillard she is relaxed and confident and it's hard for a politician to find a better backdrop for the television news than groups of children.
Who won the news cycle? A Sunday Labor win
PoliticalOwl - August 9, 2010 - 9:45pm
A certain smugness
PoliticalOwl - August 9, 2010 - 9:32pm
Maybe it’s just relief at no longer looking as if they are facing the near annihilation that the pollsters were indicating last year, but there does seem to be a certain smugness creeping into the attitude of the Coalition with two weeks to go in this election campaign. It is a dangerous thing to happen and the opposition leader Tony Abbott is more to blame than anyone. He just cannot bring himself to consistently play the role of the battling underdog. Even if he occasionally remembers to say it his body language is increasingly that of a man who fancies he will soon be prime minister.
Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott agree to meet under same roof for public forum | News.com.au
PoliticalOwl - August 9, 2010 - 9:37am
Full marks to the Sydney Daily Telegraph. They have come up with an idea that might actually allow people to learn something about the views of the two prospective Prime Ministers.
Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott agree to meet under same roof for public forum | News.com.au: Read more »
Labor's Punch and Judy show but Labor still leads on the Crikey indicator
PoliticalOwl - August 8, 2010 - 12:28pm
Friday seemed almost like an old-fashioned election campaign day. The leaders of the two parties getting about their business in the orthodox campaigning way and even talking about an issue or two against the backdrop of their made for television photo opportunity. No a Kevin Rudd or John Howard in sight.
And then came Saturday and election 2010 took on the aspect of Punch and Judy show with Julia Gillard as Judy and Kevin Rudd as Punch until Mark Latham came along to show Kevin how to really play the part of the bully boy. Current affairs television in this country has come to a pretty pass when bitter and twisted men are given prime time to vent their years old spleen. Even more distressing is that the story of the Latham intervention for 60 Minutes quickly became the most read story on the internet news sites. That's almost the first time that has happened in the 23 days of this campaign proper. Read more »
We are given virtual democracy in exchange for real power - Telegraph
PoliticalOwl - August 8, 2010 - 9:28am
A thought provoking piece!
We are given virtual democracy in exchange for real power - Telegraph: "Doubtless to celebrate the arrival of the silly season, the European Parliament has commissioned an online role-playing game called Citzalia which, as the think-tank Open Europe reported last week, allows citizens to imagine that they are participating in the parliament's important work. Citzalia is proclaimed as 'a world you inhabit and help to create. Using your avatar, you can walk around, network, debate issues of the day, propose legislation.'
All this sounds remarkably like the 'virtual democracy' we already have in Westminster, under our new Coalition Government. One of its first acts, you may recall, was to open a website on which voters could propose new laws and policies. Read more »
Who won the news cycle? Picking a winner gets confusing
PoliticalOwl - August 6, 2010 - 7:23pm
This business of choosing a daily winner gets hard when it suddenly becomes a three-way contest. That non-starter in the official race, Kevin Rudd, is outperforming the actual runners by lengths!
But back to the main event, where the daily parade of babies, schoolchildren, the aged and the ill keeps getting longer every day. Tweedle dee Gillard and Tweedle dum Abbott give us similar pictures on the television every night. Day-care centres, schools, old folks gathering places and hospitals are it, with the occasional shopping mall for a little variety. By the end of another fortnight we will have seen every one of them in Queensland. Not much in it for yet another night really, and who wins the day depends on what impact the phantom Rudd runner is actually having on the mob.
Wyclef for president
PoliticalOwl - August 6, 2010 - 7:20pm
It's not a bad song if you like that kind of thing and Wyclef Jean's words sure are more inspiring than looking forward.
And now the hip-hop superstar has announced that he plans to turn his lyrics into action by standing for the presidency of his native Haiti.
Silent Simon delivers
PoliticalOwl - August 6, 2010 - 7:15pm
Oh, it is a wonderful thing for a football club to have a No.1 ticket holder of influence. The Western Bulldogs have Prime Minister Julia Gillard and a nice little sponsorship for games from the federal department of Education. Read more »
Start talking of Labor
PoliticalOwl - August 6, 2010 - 7:02pm
One thing the government, all the members of it, should start doing is to talk about the Labor government. Forget this business of always personalising it as the Gillard government. Having admitted that its not a one-woman band, get less presidential. At least if they call it the Labor government ministers can selectively pick out the good bits from the record of the past three years without having to mention the dreaded Rudd government words.
Who won the news cycle? Kevin helps Tony out
PoliticalOwl - August 5, 2010 - 7:44pm
Caught up in some Indian games.
PoliticalOwl - August 4, 2010 - 6:54pm
Who won the news cycle? A fascinating campaign as Labor wins the day again
PoliticalOwl - August 4, 2010 - 6:50pm
Our Election Tipping Contest is predicting a tight contest
PoliticalOwl - August 3, 2010 - 11:01pm
A masonic conspiracy
PoliticalOwl - August 3, 2010 - 10:56pm
Now here’s another thing our campaign could do with?—?a masonic conspiracy theory. Italy has one at the moment as the ruling party of premier Silvio Berlusconi breaks apart over claims of corruption, masonic conspiracies, wire-tap abuses, and attempts to interfere with the courts and free speech. We are a pretty tame lot by comparison.
Now its the turn of Bulldogs to help stop the rot
PoliticalOwl - August 2, 2010 - 8:09pm
The nature of Prime Ministers
PoliticalOwl - August 1, 2010 - 9:23am
The quote of the morning just has to be former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer talking about Kevin Rudd: Read more »
Niall Ferguson as ‘poseur’: the case for the prosecution from "Though Cowards Flinch"
PoliticalOwl - July 31, 2010 - 5:45pm
Another interesting piece about the skills of Niall Ferguson's as an interpreter of economic history, this time from the Though Cowards Flinch website. It puts the debate between Paul Krugman and Ferguson into this context: If the Ferguson camp can make him into the leading public figure economist on both sides of the Atlantic, conservative fiscal policy will win the battle of economic policy, and the future will be grim for millions. It’s that serious. Read more »
An oddball candidate
PoliticalOwl - July 31, 2010 - 11:45am
I'm sure that in the list of candidates for the Australian election of 21 August there are some pretty odd ball people but I wonder if any can compare with former Marine, Basil Marceaux who is running dead last in a four-way race for Tennessee's GOP gubernatorial nomination. Read more »
A blatant courting of popularity
PoliticalOwl - July 30, 2010 - 9:26pm
Having noted that reality television is much more popular than political television I am stooping to expand the scope of the Crikey Election Indicators to encompass the next big ratings hit -- Dancing with the Stars.
Five winning days in a row for the Coalition
PoliticalOwl - July 30, 2010 - 9:22pm
This is getting serious. For five days in a row by my assessment Labor has lost the media battle of words and pictures. The prime minister just cannot seem to get away from talking about Kevin Rudd -- a subject she would love to ignore.
Yesterday Julia Gillard continued her macho woman approach by making a threatening, but completely hollow, promise to sack from a future Gillard Cabinet any minister naughty enough to leak details of a Cabinet meeting to a member of the press.
Yesterday Julia Gillard continued her macho woman approach by making a threatening, but completely hollow, promise to sack from a future Gillard Cabinet any minister naughty enough to leak details of a Cabinet meeting to a member of the press.Now this is a knife!
PoliticalOwl - July 29, 2010 - 11:17pm
No sooner did Labor turn its attention to law and order, promising to crackdown on weapons such as knives and knuckledusters if it wins the next federal election, than Tony Abbott was doing his “I can be tough on crime too” imitation.
A welcome bit of passion but …
PoliticalOwl - July 29, 2010 - 11:16pm
Wonderful to see the redhead firing up a little at her press conference yesterday but it would be nice if the new-found passion extended to a few matters of policy too. All the politicians seem to be getting excited about in this campaign is telling us what they will not be doing rather than what they will be doing.
One big worry out of the way
PoliticalOwl - July 28, 2010 - 5:44pm
At least one thing has gone right for Labor this week. The consumer price index figures released today by the Australian Bureau of Statistics should put an end to any thoughts the Reserve Bank board might have had about putting up interest rates. Inflation by all the measures is on the way down rather than up and safely inside the range the bank has as its policy goal. Read more »
The election form guide
PoliticalOwl - July 28, 2010 - 5:34pm
If you are really beastly careless about what happens on election night but still want to put some excitement into those hours in front of the tele at the Don’s Party equivalent you feel you have to attend then there are a couple of solutions.The first and easiest one is to put an entry into the Read more »
Two different worlds
PoliticalOwl - July 27, 2010 - 12:45am
Two different countries. Two newspapers. And two quite different economic problems. Read more »
Harsh words best delivered softly - Labor the daily winner
PoliticalOwl - July 24, 2010 - 12:26pm
I admit to having difficulty coming to grips with declaring that Labor had a winning Friday on the campaign trail yesterday when the keynote speech of the Prime Minister was full of such fatuous and meaningless spin. Yet give the day to Labor we must because most people will not be judging Julia Gillard on what she actually said but the way she said it. That's the sad truth of politics in the television age and on the box she managed to give the impression of being concerned with the future of the warming planet without offering anything other than more talks about what to do to stop global warming.
Then there was the composure Ms Gillard showed in the face of hostile heckling from students as she plowed on delivering her nothingness. As the security men hauled the demonstrator away she did not miss a beat and will get merit marks for being so unflappable. Read more »
The marvels of forecasts
PoliticalOwl - July 15, 2010 - 12:24pm
They are wonderful things those economists' models. Tweak a figure here and a figure there and billions of dollars just jump in. We saw that yesterday when Treasurer Wayne Swan gave us his update on economic conditions. Take a cheerful view of future iron ore and coal prices and suddenly things look much better. Thank you China.
But what goes up can also go down so I wish that Treasurer Swan would stop talking as if a projection about what things will be like in two or three years time was some kind of fact. It isn't. It is just today's best guess.
And I wonder how much weight was given to this factor, as reported in the International Herald Tribune, in the latest optimistic modelling? Read more »
Those slack Tasmanians
PoliticalOwl - July 14, 2010 - 11:26pm
They are a bludging lot those Tasmanians. They have significantly fewer people in the workforce as a proportion than any other state - only 58.1% of them in June according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.The national average is 62% and where the Federal Government rules - the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory - the figures are 71.2% and 70.5% respectively. Those New South Welshmen and South Australians are a pretty slack lot too both being well below the national average. Victoria about holds its own but Queensland and Western Australia clearly are the working states. Read more »
The West should fear the growth of state capitalism - Ian Bremmer - Telegraph
PoliticalOwl - July 11, 2010 - 8:42pm
The Trotskyists will be happy. Concern about state capitalism is making a comeback. Read more »
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