Uncategorized

Wots this then?

Catallaxy - September 3, 2010 - 7:24pm

Peter Martin has set out the types of ‘error’ Treasury identified in the Coalition policy costings.

The Charter of Budget Honesty sets out guidelines for election costings, in order to make sure they are done on the same basis. One forbids the counting of proceeds from expected ”second-round effects” such as a saving on the dole from a job creation program. The Coalition counted such an effect because it says the National Centre for Economic Modelling told it its program would take 51,000 people off the dole.

That and a similar ‘error’ amounts to some $3.5 billion. But I’m not sure the Charter of Budget Honesty forbids second round effects. Here are the criteria.

The following are standard conventions for the preparation of fiscal costings. Read more »

Katter’s log of claim: he is surely having a lend of us?

Catallaxy - September 3, 2010 - 11:07am

Bob Katter has issued his own log of claims, which is an apposite term, given that one of his claims is a return to collective bargaining (note, Bob, - this was achieved in the Fair Work Act on which you voted) and compulsory arbitration. 

He also wants the right of collective bargaining extended to farmers without, it would seem, him realising that this right exists within the Trade Practices Act, again an amendment on which he voted.

At least, he seems to have the grace to accept that all his demands would not be met by either party, so here are the ones that both parties need toss quickly in the policy waste paper bin, bound for the shredder: Read more »

Another Wickenby failure

Catallaxy - September 3, 2010 - 8:55am

There has been a lot mission slippage in Project Wickenby. It started off investigating tax evasion and tax havens, but quickly degenerated into into tax evasion and any offshore activity – including that well-known tax haven New Zealand.

Robert Agius was allegedly involved in a very simple scheme employing New Zealand banks to engage in round tripping. Clients would end up lending money to themselves and would claim interest payments as a tax deduction.

Under the scheme, Australian customers would transfer money to accounts in Vanuatu and New Zealand, claiming them as a business expense.

The money would then be returned to Australia less commission in the form of a loan, and a repayment would be treated as a tax deduction.

This is illegal and IMHO should be illegal. I have no problem with the tax authorities trying to prevent this sort of thing. Do we really need a special $400 million taskforce to prevent simple crime like this? Read more »

The Drum/Unleashed

Catallaxy - September 2, 2010 - 2:33pm

There really is some strange stuff appearing on Drum/Unleashed on the ABC website.

Today’s is a piece by Michael Head a law teacher at University of Western Sydney under the title Stoking Fears of Terrorism. The thesis is that the Howard government and the subsequent Labor governments have provoked fear of terrorism “To provide a pretext for anti-democratic ‘terrorism’ laws and to justify its participation in the US-led military occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq.” A raid just before the election on homes of Kurdish Australians was timed to show that the Labor government was tough on terrorism, we are told.

Head seems to be close to the Kurds in this country and writes:

“the PKK is not a terrorist group, but a political organisation. While the PKK has been involved in actions targeting civilians in Turkey, successive Turkish governments are responsible for the armed conflict. The Turkish military and allied fascist gangs have a long history of terrorism against the Kurdish minority and other political opponents.”

He goes on: Read more »

Treasury costings

Catallaxy - September 2, 2010 - 9:04am

The ALP costing (mind you not including the impact of the Greens alliance).

The Coalition costing.

The Coalition does a lot better in the new future – where forecasts are more likely to be more accurate – and worse in the further furture – where the forecasts are more speculative. In those future years the ALP is reliant on income from the mining tax. If that mining tax income is less than forecast (a very likely outcome IMHO) the budget under an ALP-Greens government starts looking very dodgy.

ABC Boss: Ban Competition from Other Media

Catallaxy - September 3, 2010 - 1:35pm

The Australian is carrying a report of a speech by Mark Scott, Managing Director of the ABC, who has declared that those (private) media-organised events, such as the ones at Rooty Hills and the Broncos Club in Queensland, must not be allowed to occur again.

“The events, the venues, the panels, the hosts should be set by a totally independent panel and commonly understood, a year before the date of the election,” Mr Scott told the festival’s New News 2010 Conference.

“In discussion with the campaign directors, it was clear to me that they wanted the reach of free-to-air television and were happy to use ABC talent to host,” he said.

“But finally, there was no way either was going to upset a monopoly Murdoch newspaper in the pivotal swing state three days before polling day.

“The thought of what The Courier-Mail would do to the candidate who didn’t show to their sponsored event was chilling to contemplate.” Read more »

USA 2010: Nevada Senate

The Tally Room - September 3, 2010 - 10:15am

Nevada is a swing state, going with the party winning each presidential election since 1980. Nevada is also a rapidly growing state, having gained a second House of Representatives seat after the 1980 census, and a third after the 2000 census. Nevada is expected to gain a fourth seat after this year’s census. This year’s seat is held by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D).

Both Senate seats were held by Democrats throughout the 1960s, until one of the two seats was won by Republican Paul Laxalt in 1974, who defeated Lieutenant Governor Harry Reid.

The other Senate seat was won by Republican candidate Chic Hecht in 1982, defeating Senator Howard Cannon in an upset result.

Laxalt retired from his seat at the 1986 election, and the seat was won by Democrat Harry Reid, who had held a seat in the House of Representatives since 1982. Two years later, Senator Hecht lost his seat to Governor Richard Bryan (D). Read more »

USA 2010: Ohio Senate

The Tally Room - September 2, 2010 - 10:15am

Ohio is a typical swing state, having gone to the winning presidential candidate at every election since 1964. Ohio’s two Senate seats are currently split between the two parties.

Both Ohio seats were held by the Democrats from the late 1970s until the early 1990s. In 1994, Mike DeWine (R) won one of Ohio’s Senate seats off the Democrats upon the retirement of Howard Metzenbaum.

Former astronaut John Glenn retired in 1998 from the seat up for election this year, and Ohio Governor George Voinovich (R) won the seat. In 2000, DeWine won re-election, as did Voinovich in 2004.

In 2006, DeWine lost his Senate seat to US Representative Sherrod Brown (D).

This year, George Voinovich is retiring from his Senate seat. The Republican primary was won unopposed by Rob Portman. Portman served as a member of the House of Representatives from 1993 until 2005. Portman served as US Trade Representative from 2005 to 2006, then served as Director of President Bush’s Office of Management and Budget until 2007.

In the Democratic primary, Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher defeated Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, with 55% of the vote. Read more »

Some questions for Windsor, Katter and Oakeshott

Catallaxy - September 2, 2010 - 8:46am
  • Have you checked the difference in the cost of promises made by Labor in the lead up to the 2007 election and the actual cost when implemented? If so, what is the difference?
  • Does the fact that an average of 3.9 per cent of electors in your three electorates gave their first preference votes to the Greens compared to the national average of 11.5 per cent give you pause in considering support for a Labor-Greens government?
  • Which Government is likely to put less strain on the Budget: a Coalition or a Labor-Greens government?
  • Can you point to past statements you have made where you think a Labor-Greens government would be in Australia’s national interest? Can you point to previous comments you have made in support of Greens’ policies?
  • With a Labor Government relying on Greens support and with the Greens holding a balance of power in the Senate, is it more or less likely that Greens’ policies will be implemented under a Labor or Coalition government?
  • How high a price on carbon do you support?
Read more »